How the Elton John AIDS Foundation, a 501(c)(3), forecasted cash flow with Raftel Strategy
- Ariel Menche
- Dec 22, 2025
- 3 min read
Updated: Jul 20
A 5-year forecast with revenue as a driver for headcount planning
A dynamic relationship for headcount based on various revenue streams
3 scenarios to show different strategic directions
The short version
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Overview
The Elton John AIDS Foundation is in the top 10 philanthropic funders of AIDS/HIV grants worldwide.
Background
At first, EJAF had a lot of data but needed to structure it. They wanted to build a model that could forecast different scenarios. Most importantly, they wanted to do capacity planning and budgeting with these models.
In addition, their headcount model wasn’t dynamic (not revenue-driven), which prevented a high-level strategy view on where the organization was headed from a staffing perspective. They needed more sophisticated and user-friendly models to forecast these different scenarios.
Our solution
Our team at Raftel Strategy helped EJAF transform their strategic goals into quantifiable projects. We used Causal (modeling software) to build sophisticated but easy-to-use models to forecast budget creation, cash flow, headcount, and more, all with expected vs. actuals.
We asked specific questions that revealed the data we needed to build a stronger model than the one they had been using in Excel. We encouraged EJAF to put pen-to-paper for each relevant model-driver that we wanted to forecast: hiring requirements, overhead assumptions, and so on.
Lots of specific line items (think internal audit and professional fees) were items we discovered only after we asked these questions. They allowed EJAF to think and rethink what the most realistic relationships were in each scenario.
Impact
As a result, Raftel Strategy became a key partner to EJAF’s CFO with a tight deadline approaching.
From start to finish, we delivered sophisticated but easy-to-use models to support EJAF’s long-term strategic goals. We also showed their management team how to run Causal themselves: dashboards, quick graphs, and side-by-side scenario comparisons in a table view.
What we delivered:
A 5-year forecast with revenue as a driver for headcount planning
A dynamic relationship for headcount based on various revenue streams
3 scenarios to show different strategic directions
We were lucky to present the results to Sir Elton John himself. It was a great pleasure to work with the Elton John AIDS Foundation.
Common questions
What does revenue-driven headcount planning mean?
It means the hiring plan is tied to the revenue that pays for it, so headcount moves when revenue moves instead of sitting in the spreadsheet as a fixed number. For EJAF that meant staffing could be planned against several funding scenarios rather than one guess.
Why would a nonprofit need scenario planning?
Funding arrives in uneven amounts from grants, donors, and events, so a single forecast is usually wrong. Scenarios let a foundation see what happens to staffing and programs under different funding outcomes, and decide in advance which costs move first.
Do you have to leave Excel to build a model like this?
Not always. Excel works until the model has to hold several scenarios and update them together. EJAF moved to Causal because they needed those forecasts side by side without rebuilding the file each time.
EJAF had the data and no way to turn it into a plan. If your forecast cannot show what happens to headcount when funding changes, we can build one that does. Get in touch.
About the author
Ariel Menche, Founder, Raftel Strategy
I'm a CPA, a KPMG alum, and the person people call to turn a mess of Excel spreadsheets into strategic finance.
My team and I have run forecasts, budgets, and deal support for 100+ clients in the US and Israel, as well as handling their bookkeeping.
I'm unusually passionate about strategic finance, and I talk about it on podcasts when they let me.
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